By National Research Council, Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences, Committee on the Evaluation of Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties Methodology for Assessing and Certifying the Reliability of the Nuclear Stockpile
Protecting the features of the nuclear guns stockpile and appearing the yearly evaluate for the stockpile's certification contains a variety of techniques, applied sciences, and services. an incredible and worthwhile point assisting to hyperlink these elements is the quantification of margins and uncertainties (QMU) framework. during this ebook, the nationwide examine Council evaluates: how the nationwide protection labs have been utilizing QMU, together with any major variations one of the 3 labs; its use within the annual overview; and, no matter if the functions of QMU to evaluate the proposed trustworthy substitute warhead (RRW) may well lessen the chance of resuming underground nuclear checking out. This booklet provides an evaluate of every of those concerns and contains findings and proposals to aid advisor laboratory and NNSA implementation and improvement of the QMU framework. It additionally serves as a advisor for congressional oversight of these actions.
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Extra resources for Evaluation of Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties Methodology for Assessing and Certifying the Reliability of the Nuclear Stockpile
Sample text
An SNL representative, for instance, told the committee that it was “one percent QMU-ized” as of summer 2007. M and U should be reported for all performance gates that are judged to be critical. ) PEER REVIEW OPPORTUNITIES The annual assessment process today begins at the responsible national security laboratories (LANL, LLNL, Sandia-Livermore, and SandiaAlbuquerque), with detailed analysis by the design and engineering team, followed by internal review at several levels, including review by a red team that brings in members from the other national security labs and from outside the labs.
The QMU framework has yet to be clearly defined by the national security laboratories collectively or individually. This framework must identify a more comprehensive set of performance gates and describe how QMU is used to analyze each. A possible outcome of this process is that QMU is not appropriate for a particular performance gate. QMU is often conflated with the whole set of tasks and tools that must be carried forward for stockpile stewardship and design of the RRW. These tasks and tools exist independently of the way that QMU is defined.
REPRESENTATION OF A SIMPLE PERFORMANCE GATE Finding 1-4. There is much more to QMU than one or a few margin-to-uncertainty (M/U) ratios. By themselves, these ratios cannot convey all of the information needed for proper assessment, nor can one or a few probability distributions. A performance gate is represented by a range of values for some performance metric that must be achieved for success. A performance threshold, on the other hand, is a value of a metric that must be exceeded to achieve success.
