Welfare Reform in California: State and Country by Gail L Zellman

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External Factors Beyond these internal factors, there are also some external reasons the funding level may change. The standard threats to the financial health of welfare programs remain. In the same way that the current robust economy has driven caseloads down, a worsening economy could drive caseloads up. How far is unclear, but as of now, the counties are setting aside little of the available funds for such a contingency. Page 16 The carryover funds discussed above may be consumed. If so, in 20002001 and following years, total federal funding would return to the block-grant level, 10 percent below this year's level.

Clearly, the state and the counties have a great deal of work ahead to design and implement programs that move all but 20 percent of recipients to self-sufficiency. Counties Need to Work to Meet the Challenge At this point, it is too early to know how well counties will meet the challenge of moving recipients to self-sufficiency. It is possible the economy will remain strong and will produce jobs and that the average CalWORKs programgiven what has been learned about welfare-to-work programs, given higher funding levels, and given CalWORKs' rich menu of support serviceswill be much more effective than the Riverside GAIN program.

According to this view, counties need to dedicate staff to helping recipients overcome their barriers to participation in CalWORKs activities. Some view noncompliance as a temporary problem of conveying new expectations. Page 11 Another perspective posits that noncompliance is a deliberate choice not to participate. Those holding this perspective suspect that the recipients who do not comply have significant levels of unreported ("under the table") labor earnings. In addition, they argue that the details of the CalWORKs legislation actually encourage noncompliance.